Latest Research
CFS Money Supply for January
CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 0.8% in January 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 0.7% in December.
January Data Release
Falling Money and the Fed
In December, CFS Divisia M4 (DM4) declined by the 14th largest amount on record since 1968. The implication is that inflation and growth are slowing more dramatically than many believe. More
The Fed Must Emulate the Tactics of Volcker's Fight Against inflation
CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair writes in the Financial Times that for many years, the Fed has unwisely paid little attention to the huge volume of money its accommodative polices have created. It now needs to follow Volcker's example and attack excess money supply head-on. More
The Ponzi Bubble in China's Property Market is Deflating
Robert Z. Aliber offers his latest thoughts on China's property market, Evergrande, and future economic prospects more broadly. He first discussed these dynamics in the epilogue of the seventh edition of Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. More
Regulators Must Act to Rein in Wall Street Risks as Rates Rise
CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair writes in the Financial Times that the Fed has an even greater challenge in its role as a regulator to maintain financial stability as it raises interest rates. If there is another crisis, we cannot afford to prioritise Wall Street over Main Street. More
How the Fed Rigs the Bond Market: Sales by "vigilantes" used to serve as a warning of inflationary policies. The signal has been muted.
The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Lawrence Goodman that offers specific actions for Congress, Treasury, and the Fed to defuse imbalances and gradually restore market dynamics to the determination of bond yields.
More
Two Measures for the Fed and Investors
With inflation in excess of 5% in each of the last 5 months, two measures should influence Fed and investor decisions going forward. More
Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?
CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett delivered the keynote lecture at the UK Conference, "Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement, and COVID-19 Challenges."
More
New Report Highlights Rising Sovereign Credit Risks
CFS Senior Fellow David Beers and co-authors Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger and John Fraser Walsh update the BoC-BoE sovereign default database and related research. They highlight that globally, the value of sovereign defaults reached an estimated US$443 billion last year, up from US$300 billion in 2019. The authors expect defaults to continue to grow this decade and strain the ad hoc multilateral framework for resolving them. More
Now, Inflation is Clear and Global
Across the board higher consumer price inflation in the United States removes any ambiguity or doubt regarding the existence of price pressures beyond transitory or base effects. The phenomenon also extends well beyond simply the United States. It is global.
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Events
Discussion with Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and financial stability.
View the video.
Discussion with Fed Gov Waller on Economic and Monetary Outlook

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller. Governor Waller on the economic and monetary outlook.
View the video.
Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System: 75 years after Bretton Woods
The conference commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement by gathering high-level thinkers from all over the world to evaluate extraordinary monetary policies, spillovers, financial innovation, and the IMF.
Please see more about the roundtable agenda or summary.
The Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Future

This conference, co-sponsored by CFS, the Central Bank of Iceland and the University of Iceland, examined the causes of the 2008 crisis, regulatory responses, and lessons for the future.
Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.
Bank of England Conference in Honor of William A. Barnett

Discussions at the “Financial Services Indices, Liquidity and Economic Activity” conference focused on understanding and assessing the macroeconomic implications of liquidity, the liquidity creation process, and the impacts of liquidity on financial markets and economic activity.
Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.
Bretton Woods 2014 gathered prominent leaders from government, business, and academia in a working-group environment to focus on the future of finance and the international monetary system. Please see more about the conference to see other remarks, presentations, and photos from the conference.
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Future Prospects for the World‘s Foreign Exchange Rate System:
Political Design vs. Evolution, Otmar Issing Read remarks | Read slides
Nice-Squared - Near an Internationally Cooperative Equilibrium, John B. Taylor Read remarks | See video
A Few Thoughts on the Current International Monetary System, Liu Mingkang Read paper
Bretton Woods Reconsidered:The Dollar Standard and the Role of China, Ronald McKinnon Read paper | Read slides
Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve, Spencer F. Eccles Read remarks
Critical Issues for the Bretton Woods Institutions, William R. Rhodes Read remarks
The 1944 Keynes Plan: An Idea Whose Time Has Now Returned?, Charles Goodhart Read remarks
Summary and Next Steps, Randal K. Quarles Read remarks
Thoughts on World War II in July 1944, Carole Brookins Read remarks
What Have We Learned from Recent Research on Bretton Woods? Eric Helleiner, Eric Rauchway, and Kurt Schuler Read paper
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