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The Center for Financial Stability is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit think tank focused on financial markets for the benefit of investors, officials, and the public. More |
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Latest Research CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 3.2% in April 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 2.4% in March. April Data Release In December, CFS Divisia M4 (DM4) declined by the 14th largest amount on record since 1968. The implication is that inflation and growth are slowing more dramatically than many believe. More The Fed Must Emulate the Tactics of Volcker's Fight Against inflation CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair writes in the Financial Times that for many years, the Fed has unwisely paid little attention to the huge volume of money its accommodative polices have created. It now needs to follow Volcker's example and attack excess money supply head-on. More The Ponzi Bubble in China's Property Market is Deflating Robert Z. Aliber offers his latest thoughts on China's property market, Evergrande, and future economic prospects more broadly. He first discussed these dynamics in the epilogue of the seventh edition of Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. More Regulators Must Act to Rein in Wall Street Risks as Rates Rise CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair writes in the Financial Times that the Fed has an even greater challenge in its role as a regulator to maintain financial stability as it raises interest rates. If there is another crisis, we cannot afford to prioritise Wall Street over Main Street. The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Lawrence Goodman that offers specific actions for Congress, Treasury, and the Fed to defuse imbalances and gradually restore market dynamics to the determination of bond yields. More Two Measures for the Fed and Investors With inflation in excess of 5% in each of the last 5 months, two measures should influence Fed and investor decisions going forward. More Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom? CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett delivered the keynote lecture at the UK Conference, "Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement, and COVID-19 Challenges." More New Report Highlights Rising Sovereign Credit Risks CFS Senior Fellow David Beers and co-authors Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger and John Fraser Walsh update the BoC-BoE sovereign default database and related research. They highlight that globally, the value of sovereign defaults reached an estimated US$443 billion last year, up from US$300 billion in 2019. The authors expect defaults to continue to grow this decade and strain the ad hoc multilateral framework for resolving them. More Now, Inflation is Clear and Global Across the board higher consumer price inflation in the United States removes any ambiguity or doubt regarding the existence of price pressures beyond transitory or base effects. The phenomenon also extends well beyond simply the United States. It is global. More |
Events
Discussion with Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia
The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and financial stability. View the video.
Discussion with Fed Gov Waller on Economic and Monetary Outlook
The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller. Governor Waller on the economic and monetary outlook. View the video.
Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System:
75 years after Bretton Woods
     The conference commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement by gathering high-level thinkers from all over the world to evaluate extraordinary monetary policies, spillovers, financial innovation, and the IMF.
The Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Future
This conference, co-sponsored by CFS, the Central Bank of Iceland and the University of Iceland, examined the causes of the 2008 crisis, regulatory responses, and lessons for the future. Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.
Bank of England Conference in Honor of William A. Barnett
Discussions at the “Financial Services Indices, Liquidity and Economic Activity” conference focused on understanding and assessing the macroeconomic implications of liquidity, the liquidity creation process, and the impacts of liquidity on financial markets and economic activity. Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.
 Bretton Woods 2014 gathered prominent leaders from government, business, and academia in a working-group environment to focus on the future of finance and the international monetary system. Please see more about the conference to see other remarks, presentations, and photos from the conference. Show More |
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News & Views
Thursday, June 1, 2023
- CFS Monetary Measures for April 2023
- FT: Bair on Protecting Smaller Banks from Investor Nerves
- CFS Monetary Measures for March 2023
- CFS Monetary Measures for February 2023
- US regulators are setting a dangerous precedent on Silicon Valley Bank
- More News & Views…
Highlights
“Congress must act to protect smaller banks from investor nerves” - Measures to shield operational business accounts, introduced during Covid, should be triggered urgently. The Financial Times published an opinion piece by CFS Advisory Board member and senior fellow Sheila Bair.
“US regulators are setting a dangerous precedent on Silicon Valley Bank” - In the Financial Times, CFS Advisory Board member and senior fellow Sheila Bair covers systemic risk determination, use of FDIC insurance and Fed policy.
Robin Lumsdaine - CFS senior fellow / international finance - has been appointed for four years as a member to the Advisory Scientific Committee (ASC) at the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB).
“Central banks are fighting the wrong war – the West’s money supply is already crashing” - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard quotes CFS President Lawrence Goodman on inflation and growth in The Telegraph.
“Lessons from the great reflation - There is a danger not just of loosening too soon but of loosening too far” - Martin Wolf of the Financial Times charted CFS Divisia M4 growth in his discussion about monetary policy and inflation.
“Sheila Bair: 'I feel for the regulators. You’re damned if you do and you're damned if you don't'” - The Financial Times interviewed CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair.
Peter Coy in The New York Times quoted Lawrence Goodman and charted CFS Divisia DM4 growth in “Is the U.S. Economy Growing or Not?.”
“Inflation is a political challenge as well as an economic one” - Martin Wolf of the Financial Times charted CFS Divisia DM4 growth in his discussion about the importance of money.
“As inflation rises, the monetarist dog is having its day. Economists are being forced to relearn lessons about the importance of the money supply.” Martin Wolf of the Financial Times cites CFS Divisia in his piece discussing the importance of money.
“Inflation has Fed critics pointing to spike in money supply” - In his piece at The Washington Post, David J. Lynch asks the question “why does the Fed ignore the money supply”? It covers much ground, with reference to Bill Barnett’s work as CFS director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM).
Robert Aliber, University of Chicago professor emeritus and co-author of Manis, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises spoke about the Eighth edition of Manias as well as the banking system and financial market risks.
Discussion with President Patrick T. Harker of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
President Harker focussed on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and financial stability. View video
Private Roundtable: The Chinese Communist Party and the financial deterioration of China
Author and scholar, Carl E. Walter discussed his forthcoming book The Red Dream: the Chinese Communist Party and the financial deterioration of China. View the slides.
Discussion with Fed Gov Waller
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller offered remarks and discussed Economic and Monetary Policy with CFS on November 19. View video
Private Virtual Roundtable: Time Diversification: Dynamic Risk Management - CFS hosted a private virtual roundtable with Myron Scholes.
