Falling Money and the Fed

CFS Divisia M4 (DM4) declined by the 14th largest amount on record since 1968.

The implication is that inflation and growth are slowing more dramatically than many believe.

Over years and cycles, our data and analytics offer paths for investors to profit and officials to conduct policy in a way to limit inflation and promote growth in a less volatile financial environment.

A message on markets, analytics and policy implications will follow next week.

View “Falling Money and the Fed” at
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Falling_Money_013123.pdf

CFS Monetary Measures for December 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for December 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 0.9% in December 2022 on a year-over-year basis versus an increase of 0.3% in November.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Dec22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

OFR Annual Report Warns of Elevated Risk to Financial Stability

In its 2022 Annual Report to Congressthe Office of Financial Research (“OFR”) warned that threats to U.S. financial stability are elevated compared to previous years because of rising inflation, tight credit conditions and geopolitical uncertainty.

OFR found that U.S. economic growth slowed due to elevated interest rates, a significant increase in commodity prices and lingering supply chain issues from the COVID-19 pandemic. OFR reported that non-financial corporate credit risk is rising, but household credit risk remains low. OFR said that financial stability risk is elevated across the financial system, including (i) macroeconomic risk, (ii) credit risk, (iii) liquidity and funding risk and (iv) contagion risk. OFR also that said (i) high volatility in the digital asset market, (ii) increased frequency and complexity of cybersecurity attacks, and (iii) financial losses due to climate-related financial risk contributed to the increased risk to financial stability.

Additionally, OFR highlighted the launch of two pilot programs:

  • the Non-centrally Cleared Bilateral Repo Pilot Project, which OFR said will give regulators more insight into the non-centrally cleared bilateral repo market. OFR is currently considering a rule to establish an ongoing data collection program as to bilateral repo (see previous coverage); and
  • the Climate Data and Analytics Hub pilot, which provides regulators with reliable climate data and tools to properly assess climate risks to financial stability.

LOFCHIE COMMENTARY

In the report, OFR tells us, “[a]s a frontier risk, climate-related financial risk—though difficult to model and forecast within the financial system—presents an increasing threat to financial stability. Being able to assess it accurately is vital to mitigating its effects.” Put differently, OFR acknowledges that it cannot measure the risk that climate change poses to financial stability, and it cannot demonstrate that climate change is a financial stability risk, or how risky it is, but OFR pledges to find something there. This makes no sense whatsoever. If the U.S. government is able to demonstrate the risks that arise from climate change in a convincing manner, businesses will adjust to these risks. For now, OFR does not have the data.

Further, much of what OFR paints as “climate change risk” is really very ordinary “weather risk,” such as building houses in areas likely to be flooded, or areas at risk of wildfires. (See footnote 167 of the OFR report and the papers cited therein.) These risks do not arise because the temperature rose a degree; they arise because people are building where perhaps they should not, which undoubtedly creates financial risk. But it is not climate change risk; it’s weather risk. If the OFR would approach the issue of weather more temperately, it would be more likely to produce work of value.

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CFS Monetary Measures for November 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for November 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 0.2% in November 2022 on a year-over-year basis, maintaining the same growth rate as in October.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Nov22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for October 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for October 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, was roughly unchanged in October 2022 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.0% in September.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Oct22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for September 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for September 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 1.9% in September 2022 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.3% in August.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Sep22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for August 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for August 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 2.5% in August 2022 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.3% in July.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Aug22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for July 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 2.3% in July 2022 on a year-over-year basis versus 1.7% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for June 2022

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for June 2022. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 1.8% in June 2022 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.1% in May.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jun22.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

FT: Bair on Volcker and the Fed

Today, the Financial Times published Sheila Bair’s Opinion piece “The Fed must emulate the tactics of Volcker’s fight against inflation.” Sheila notes that:

  • US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has expressed deep admiration for the legendary Paul Volcker, yet Powell is deviating from Volcker’s methods.
  • Volcker fought inflation by restraining growth in money supply to keep monetary policy tight through two recessions to finally beat inflation.
  • For many years, the Fed has unwisely paid little attention to the huge volume of money its accommodative polices have created. It now needs to follow Volcker’s example and attack excess money supply head-on.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://www.ft.com/content/b82082c9-d26a-47a5-8b1a-34121f572645

Sheila Bair is a former chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior fellow and Advisory Board member at the Center for Financial Stability.