Center for Financial Stability

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The Center for Financial Stability is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit think tank focused on financial markets for the benefit of investors, officials, and the public.  More

Latest Research

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 0.4% in December 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 1.0% in November.   December Data Release

Supervision and Regulation after Silicon Valley Bank

With a keen eye on the present and future, a group of senior advisors to the Center for Financial Stability assess recent causes of banking system stress as well as offer specific supervisory and regulatory reform proposals.   More

The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Recent Bank Failures

With a keen eye on the present and future, a group of senior advisors to the Center for Financial Stability assess the role of public policy in recent banking system stress as well as offer proposals for the Fed to strengthen financial stability.  More

Markets and Volatile Monetary Policy: Empirical Lessons from Banking Instability

Ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, the stock market is elevated and the economy and inflation are on the descent.  Monetary policy meaningfully contributed to the distress at the Silicon Valley Bank and recent swings in financial markets.  CFS president Lawrence Goodman offers a solution for officials and an opportunity for investors to profit.
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A Story of Money, Inflation,
and the CFS

CFS President Lawrence Goodman shows how the use of CFS Divisia money supply would have helped officials strengthen financial policy and investors safeguard assets or profit. Similarly, the piece offers ideas to develop a more reliable and accountable data-dependent framework for policy design.  More

The Fed Must Emulate the Tactics of Volcker's Fight Against inflation

CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair writes in the Financial Times that for many years, the Fed has unwisely paid little attention to the huge volume of money its accommodative polices have created. It now needs to follow Volcker's example and attack excess money supply head-on. More

The Ponzi Bubble in China's Property Market is Deflating

Robert Z. Aliber offers his latest thoughts on China's property market, Evergrande, and future economic prospects more broadly. He first discussed these dynamics in the epilogue of the seventh edition of Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises.  More

Regulators Must Act to Rein in Wall Street Risks as Rates Rise

CFS Advisory Board Member and Senior Fellow Sheila Bair writes in the Financial Times that the Fed has an even greater challenge in its role as a regulator to maintain financial stability as it raises interest rates. If there is another crisis, we cannot afford to prioritise Wall Street over Main Street.
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Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?

CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett delivered the keynote lecture at the UK Conference, "Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement, and COVID-19 Challenges."   More

New Report Highlights Rising Sovereign Credit Risks

CFS Senior Fellow David Beers and co-authors Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger and John Fraser Walsh update the BoC-BoE sovereign default database and related research. They highlight that globally, the value of sovereign defaults reached an estimated US$443 billion last year, up from US$300 billion in 2019. The authors expect defaults to continue to grow this decade and strain the ad hoc multilateral framework for resolving them.  More


 
 
Events
 
Discussion with Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and financial stability.   View the video.

 
Discussion with Fed Gov Waller on Economic and Monetary Outlook

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller. Governor Waller on the economic and monetary outlook. View the video.

 
Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System:
75 years after Bretton Woods

Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image

The conference commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement by gathering high-level thinkers from all over the world to evaluate extraordinary monetary policies, spillovers, financial innovation, and the IMF.

Please see more about the roundtable agenda or summary.

 
The Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Future

This conference, co-sponsored by CFS, the Central Bank of Iceland and the University of Iceland, examined the causes of the 2008 crisis, regulatory responses, and lessons for the future.

Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.

 
Bank of England Conference in Honor of William A. Barnett

Discussions at the “Financial Services Indices, Liquidity and Economic Activity” conference focused on understanding and assessing the macroeconomic implications of liquidity, the liquidity creation process, and the impacts of liquidity on financial markets and economic activity.

Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.

 
Bretton Woods 2014 Conference Image

Bretton Woods 2014 gathered prominent leaders from government, business, and academia in a working-group environment to focus on the future of finance and the international monetary system. Please see more about the conference to see other remarks, presentations, and photos from the conference.

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News & Views

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Highlights

The Financial Times' Robin Wigglesworth released a well-researched article - “Learning British Financial Stability Lessons. Seriously!” - which covered CFS reports.

The Federal Reserve needs to stay put on rates” - In the Financial Times, CFS Advisory Board member and senior fellow Sheila Bair advocates for keeping rates unchanged, but if the Fed does raise rates again...

The Fed‘s ‘stress tests’ overlook the dangers facing banks” - In the Washington Post, CFS Advisory Board member and senior fellow Sheila Bair describes deficiencies in the Fed‘s stress tests and how they could be improved.

Debt ceiling crisis: Here's what 2011 taught us” - David Beers, CFS senior fellow, joined CNBC to discuss the debt ceiling debate, how the present debate compares with the previous cycles, and the argument against credit downgrades.

Congress must act to protect smaller banks from investor nerves” - Measures to shield operational business accounts, introduced during Covid, should be triggered urgently. The Financial Times published an opinion piece by CFS Advisory Board member and senior fellow Sheila Bair.

US regulators are setting a dangerous precedent on Silicon Valley Bank” - In the Financial Times, CFS Advisory Board member and senior fellow Sheila Bair covers systemic risk determination, use of FDIC insurance and Fed policy.

Robin Lumsdaine - CFS senior fellow / international finance - has been appointed for four years as a member to the Advisory Scientific Committee (ASC) at the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB).

Central banks are fighting the wrong war – the West’s money supply is already crashing” - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard quotes CFS President Lawrence Goodman on inflation and growth in The Telegraph.

Lessons from the great reflation - There is a danger not just of loosening too soon but of loosening too far” - Martin Wolf of the Financial Times charted CFS Divisia M4 growth in his discussion about monetary policy and inflation.

CFS IN THE NEWS

Discussion of New Reports on Banking Stress and Monetary Policy
CFS Advisory Board Chair Randal Quarles lead two discussions of the findings with authors Sheila Bair (chair), Joyce Chang, Charles Goodhart, Lawrence Goodman, Barbara Novick, and invited guests in Washington DC and New York. To view reports:  The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Recent Bank Failures and Supervision and Regulation after Silicon Valley Bank

Robert Aliber, University of Chicago professor emeritus and co-author of Manis, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises spoke about the Eighth edition of Manias as well as the banking system and financial market risks.

Discussion with President Patrick T. Harker of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
President Harker focussed on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and financial stability.  View video

Private Roundtable: The Chinese Communist Party and the financial deterioration of China
Author and scholar, Carl E. Walter discussed his forthcoming book The Red Dream: the Chinese Communist Party and the financial deterioration of China. View the slides.